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央妈不断“花式”放水A股迎来“红包”行情

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月23日 09:09:05
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(  新)(京)(报)(讯)((记)(者)(金)(_g李)(春)(平)()继)(周)(一)(“开)(门)(黑)(”之)(后)(,昨)(日)(A股)(四)(大)(股)(指)(大)(幅)(反)(弹)(。2月)(2日)(,沪)(指)(涨)(2.26%重)(新)(收)(复)(2700点)(报)(2749.57点)(,深)(成)(指)(、中)(小)(板)(指)(涨)(逾)(3%,创)(业)(板)(指)(涨)(逾)(4%。同)(时)(,融)(资)(余)(额)(继)(续)(下)(跌)(,跌)(破)(9000亿)(元)(大)(关)(。分)(析)(认)(为)(,在)(一)(月)(份)(沪)(指)(超)(跌)(22%之)(后)(,春)(节)(前)(市)(场)(上)(涨)(为)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(,节)(前)(红)(包)(行)(情)(已)(经)(开)(启)(,预)(期)(后)(市)(延)(续)(震)(荡)(上)(涨)(行)(情)(,A股)(再)(创)(新)(低)(的)(可)(能)(性)(比)(较)(低)(。
  春)(节)(前)(上)(涨)(概)(率)(大)(
  昨)(日)(受)(“解)(放)(军)(五)(大)(战)(区)(成)(立)(”利)(好)(提)(振)(,军)(工)(股)(强)(势)(反)(弹)(,带)(领)(其)(他)(蓝)(筹)(股)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(。截)(至)(收)(盘)(,板)(块)(全)(面)(飘)(红)(,计)(算)(机)(板)(块)(领)(涨)(,涨)(幅)(逾)(6%,不)(计)(算)(ST个)(股)(和)(未)(股)(改)(股)(,两)(市)(百)(余)(只)(个)(股)(涨)(停)(。沪)(深)(两)(市)(合)(计)(成)(交)(4032.53亿)(元)(,较)(上)(一)(交)(易)(日)(的)(3704.10亿)(元)(明)(显)(增)(量)(。
  中)(泰)(证)(券)(首)(席)(宏)(观)(策)(略)(分)(析)(师)(罗)(文)(波)(指)(出)(,从)(历)(史)(经)(验)(来)(看)(,春)(节)(前)(市)(场)(上)(涨)(为)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(。从)(2000年)(以)(来)(,春)(节)(前)(一)(周)(的)(行)(情)(梳)(理)(显)(示)(,十)(六)(个)(交)(易)(周)(仅)(两)(个)(交)(易)(周)(出)(现)(下)(行)(,其)(余)(均)(录)(得)(正)(收)(益)(。
  同)(花)(顺)(财)(经)(数)(据)(也)(显)(示)(,在)(过)(去)(10年)(春)(节)(前)(后)(的)(沪)(指)(表)(现)(来)(看)(,仅)(2009年)(和)(2014年)(春)(节)(前)(三)(个)(交)(易)(日)(总)(体)(涨)(幅)(为)(负)(值)(。
  南)(方)(基)(金)(首)(席)(策)(略)(分)(析)(师)(杨)(德)(龙)(对)(新)(京)(报)(记)(者)(表)(示)(,2日)(A股)(超)(跌)(反)(弹)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(春)(节)(前)(红)(包)(行)(情)(启)(动)(。大)(盘)(短)(期)(底)(部)(已)(经)(确)(立)(,昨)(日)(市)(场)(虽)(然)(没)(有)(明)(显)(放)(量)(,但)(是)(底)(部)(已)(经)(改)(善)(,后)(市)(将)(延)(续)(震)(荡)(反)(弹)(的)(走)(势)(。根)(据)(统)(计)(,两)(会)(之)(前)(大)(盘)(反)(弹)(概)(率)(超)(过)(80%。
  杨)(德)(龙)(称)(,2016年)(开)(年)(,A股)(迎)(来)(大)(幅)(调)(整)(,市)(场)(通)(过)(急)(跌)(的)(方)(式)(迅)(速)(完)(成)(本)(轮)(调)(整)(。整)(个)(1月)(份)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(累)(计)(下)(跌)(800余)(点)(,跌)(幅)(达)(22.65%,而)(且)(创)(出)(2638点)(的)(调)(整)(新)(低)(。春)(节)(将)(至)(,大)(盘)(有)(望)(迎)(来)(一)(波)(红)(包)(行)(情)(,投)(资)(者)(可)(以)(积)(极)(把)(握)(。
  两)(融)(余)(额)(跌)(破)(9000亿)(元)(
  A股)(融)(资)(融)(券)(余)(额)(持)(续)(下)(滑)(,跌)(破)(9000亿)(元)(大)(关)(。截)(至)(2月)(1日)(,沪)(深)(两)(市)(融)(资)(融)(券)(余)(额)(为)(8996.34亿)(元)(,较)(前)(一)(交)(易)(日)(的)(9091.72亿)(元)(减)(少)(95.38亿)(元)(,这)(也)(是)(两)(融)(数)(据)(自)(2015年)(12月)(30日)(以)(来)(连)(续)(22个)(交)(易)(日)(下)(降)(。
  不)(足)(9000亿)(元)(的)(两)(融)(余)(额)(,跌)(破)(了)(去)(年)(“股)(灾)(”期)(间)(创)(下)(的)(9067.09亿)(元)(阶)(段)(性)(低)(点)(,也)(是)(自)(2014年)(12月)(4日)(以)(来)(的)(新)(低)(。不)(过)(有)(分)(析)(认)(为)(,在)(昨)(日)(沪)(深)(两)(市)(大)(涨)(下)(,两)(融)(余)(额)(很)(大)(概)(率)(重)(返)(9000亿)(元)(关)(口)(上)(方)(。
  而)(根)(据)(去)(年)(“股)(灾)(”期)(间)(高)(盛)(出)(具)(的)(研)(报)(测)(算)(数)(据)(,A股)(市)(场)(合)(理)(、可)(持)(续)(的)(融)(资)(余)(额)(应)(为)(流)(通)(市)(值)(的)(5%,或)(是)(总)(市)(值)(的)(2%。在)(去)(年)(9月)(30日)(,融)(资)(余)(额)(正)(是)(触)(及)(了)(阶)(段)(性)(的)(低)(点)(9040亿)(后)(,融)(资)(余)(额)(/自)(由)(流)(通)(市)(值)(比)(达)(到)(5.1%后)(,A股)(启)(动)(了)(为)(期)(3个)(月)(的)(反)(弹)(。在)(经)(历)(1月)(份)(沪)(深)(两)(市)(市)(值)(蒸)(发)(12万)(亿)(后)(,2月)(1日)(A股)(融)(资)(余)(额)(/自)(由)(流)(通)(市)(值)(比)(已)(经)(达)(到)(5.3%,接)(近)(高)(盛)(测)(算)(的)(合)(理)(水)(平)(。
  政)(策)(
  央)(妈)(花)(式)(“放)(水)(”维)(稳)(资)(金)(面)(
  2月)(2日)(,央)(行)(宣)(布)(开)(展)(1000亿)(元)(的)(逆)(回)(购)(操)(作)(,分)(别)(为)(500亿)(14天)(期)(和)(500亿)(28天)(逆)(回)(购)(,中)(标)(利)(率)(为)(2.40%和)(2.60%。
  这)(也)(是)(时)(隔)(四)(个)(月)(来)(央)(行)(再)(次)(进)(行)(14天)(逆)(回)(购)(。本)(周)(一)(,央)(行)(还)(特)(别)(开)(展)(了)(100亿)(的)(微)(量)(28天)(逆)(回)(购)(。本)(周)(央)(行)(公)(开)(市)(场)(将)(有)(1800亿)(元)(7天)(逆)(回)(购)(到)(期)(。
  上)(海)(证)(券)(债)(券)(团)(队)(表)(示)(,据)(统)(计)(,从)(1月)(15日)(的)(SLO(短)(期)(流)(动)(性)(调)(节)(工)(具)()至)(今)(,央)(行)(已)(弥)(补)(了)(约)(2万)(亿)(元)(的)(春)(节)(资)(金)(缺)(口)(。
  该)(团)(队)(表)(示)(,加)(之)(此)(前)(宣)(布)(的)(增)(加)(春)(节)(期)(间)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(场)(次)(的)(政)(策)(,未)(来)(的)(流)(动)(性)(预)(期)(更)(加)(乐)(观)(。央)(行)(的)(巨)(量)(花)(式)(扶)(助)(,对)(节)(前)(紧)(张)(的)(资)(金)(面)(产)(生)(安)(抚)(效)(果)(,也)(显)(示)(了)(央)(行)(维)(稳)(的)(决)(心)(和)(实)(力)(。尽)(管)(节)(后)(会)(有)(到)(期)(压)(力)(、美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(等)(不)(确)(定)(因)(素)(,但)(震)(荡)(终)(将)(过)(去)(,流)(动)(性)(趋)(暖)(是)(必)(然)(。
  央)(行)(2月)(1日)(发)(布)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,自)(2016年)(以)(来)(,央)(行)(已)(连)(续)(四)(周)(在)(公)(开)(市)(场)(实)(现)(净)(投)(放)(。其)(中)(,央)(行)(上)(周)(在)(公)(开)(市)(场)(实)(现)(创)(历)(史)(纪)(录)(的)(6900亿)(元)(净)(投)(放)(。
  同)(时)(,1月)(份)(央)(行)(共)(进)(行)(了)(8625亿)(元)(的)(MLF(中)(期)(借)(贷)(便)(利)(操)(作)(),其)(中)(期)(限)(3个)(月)(4455亿)(元)(,6个)(月)(2175亿)(元)(,1年)(期)(1995亿)(元)(;同)(时)(收)(回)(到)(期)(中)(期)(借)(贷)(便)(利)(2500亿)(元)(。1月)(末)(中)(期)(借)(贷)(便)(利)(余)(额)(为)(12783亿)(元)(。
  此)(外)(,央)(行)(当)(月)(还)(进)(行)(了)(5209.1亿)(元)(SLF(常)(备)(借)(贷)(便)(利)(操)(作)()。(陈)(杨)()
  观)(点)(
  社)(科)(院)(:沪)(指)(趋)(势)(性)(上)(涨)(难)(
  中)(国)(社)(会)(科)(学)(院)(金)(融)(所)(2月)(2日)(发)(布)(研)(究)(报)(告)(认)(为)(,场)(外)(配)(资)(及)(场)(内)(融)(资)(数)(量)(增)(长)(过)(快)(是)(导)(致)(2015年)(股)(灾)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(。而)(在)(2016年)(,支)(撑)(股)(价)(上)(升)(的)(因)(素)(已)(经)(不)(复)(存)(在)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(难)(有)(趋)(势)(性)(上)(涨)(机)(会)(,防)(范)(风)(险)(是)(投)(资)(者)(的)(首)(要)(任)(务)(。
  社)(科)(院)(金)(融)(所)(称)(,2015年)(“股)(灾)(”的)(罪)(魁)(祸)(首)(是)(股)(市)(的)(杠)(杆)(融)(资)(比)(例)(过)(高)(,且)(缺)(乏)(透)(明)(度)(。另)(外)(,股)(市)(中)(的)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(还)(表)(现)(在)(大)(股)(东)(的)(质)(押)(融)(资)(上)(,该)(行)(为)(暴)(露)(了)(股)(市)(与)(银)(行)(之)(间)(的)(另)(一)(条)(连)(通)(管)(道)(,在)(监)(管)(上)(则)(没)(有)(建)(立)(银)(行)(与)(股)(市)(之)(间)(的)(防)(火)(墙)(。
  而)(对)(于)(今)(年)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(,社)(科)(院)(金)(融)(所)(认)(为)(,今)(年)(的)(股)(票)(市)(场)(将)(处)(于)(震)(荡)(筑)(底)(状)(态)(,防)(范)(风)(险)(是)(投)(资)(者)(的)(首)(要)(任)(务)(。
  社)(科)(院)(金)(融)(所)(报)(告)(指)(出)(,从)(政)(策)(逻)(辑)(看)(,支)(撑)(2014年)(至)(2015年)(股)(价)(上)(升)(的)(因)(素)(已)(经)(不)(复)(存)(在)(。强)(周)(期)(行)(业)(上)(市)(公)(司)(受)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(影)(响)(,业)(绩)(难)(以)(改)(观)(,使)(得)(上)(证)(指)(数)(难)(以)(有)(趋)(势)(性)(上)(涨)(的)(机)(会)(;新)(兴)(产)(业)(较)(集)(中)(的)(中)(小)(板)(和)(创)(业)(板)(虽)(会)(出)(现)(局)(部)(亮)(点)(,但)(公)(司)(估)(值)(普)(遍)(处)(于)(高)(位)(,对)(新)(股)(发)(行)(的)(注)(册)(制)(改)(革)(相)(对)(比)(较)(敏)(感)(,如)(今)(年)(推)(出)(注)(册)(制)(改)(革)(,则)(中)(小)(板)(和)(创)(业)(板)(估)(值)(将)(大)(幅)(度)(下)(移)(。
  (李)(春)(平)()
  后)(市)(
  持)(股)(OR持)(币)(过)(年)(?
  昨)(日)(A股)(迎)(来)(大)(反)(弹)(,四)(大)(指)(数)(涨)(幅)(均)(超)(2%。而)(历)(史)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,近)(12年)(来)(8成)(反)(弹)(行)(情)(出)(现)(在)(2月)(,在)(春)(节)(前)(还)(剩)(3个)(交)(易)(日)(情)(况)(下)(,投)(资)(者)(是)(持)(股)(过)(节)(还)(是)(持)(币)(过)(节)(更)(稳)(妥)(?
  分)(析)(师)(这)(么)(看)(
  国)(信)(证)(券)(总)(裁)(助)(理)(、发)(展)(研)(究)(总)(部)(总)(经)(理)(何)(诚)(颖)(:
  由)(于)(1月)(份)(A股)(已)(经)(历)(大)(幅)(度)(调)(整)(,节)(前)(流)(动)(性)(释)(放)(又)(同)(时)(叠)(加)(两)(会)(窗)(口)(期)(,投)(资)(者)(已)(无)(必)(要)(对)(后)(市)(过)(于)(恐)(慌)(。尤)(其)(是)(随)(着)(3月)(份)(“两)(会)(”的)(来)(临)(,预)(计)(市)(场)(热)(情)(将)(再)(次)(升)(温)(。目)(前)(部)(分)(股)(票)(估)(值)(已)(经)(具)(有)(较)(强)(的)(吸)(引)(力)(,精)(明)(的)(投)(资)(者)(已)(经)(开)(始)(在)(“捡)(烟)(蒂)(”。
  南)(方)(基)(金)(首)(席)(策)(略)(分)(析)(师)(杨)(德)(龙)(:
  目)(前)(大)(盘)(已)(经)(处)(于)(底)(部)(区)(域)(,市)(场)(风)(险)(已)(经)(和)(元)(旦)(前)(3500点)(相)(比)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(,但)(很)(多)(投)(资)(者)(被)(市)(场)(跌)(势)(吓)(坏)(,开)(始)(恐)(慌)(,把)(股)(票)(割)(肉)(割)(在)(地)(板)(上)(。现)(在)(大)(盘)(已)(经)(在)(底)(部)(区)(域)(,投)(资)(者)(要)(珍)(惜)(手)(中)(的)(优)(质)(筹)(码)(,耐)(心)(等)(待)(大)(盘)(触)(底)(回)(升)(。在)(目)(前)(这)(个)(阶)(段)(,持)(有)(或)(抄)(底)(一)(些)(优)(质)(个)(股)(。
  民)(族)(证)(券)(分)(析)(师)(黄)(博)(:
  春)(节)(休)(市)(这)(一)(周)(内)(,海)(外)(市)(场)(波)(动)(将)(影)(响)(节)(后)(A股)(开)(盘)(后)(走)(势)(,这)(一)(点)(在)(历)(史)(上)(已)(看)(到)(很)(多)(了)(。虽)(然)(急)(跌)(后)(期)(市)(场)(本)(身)(是)(会)(有)(一)(个)(技)(术)(性)(的)(反)(弹)(的)(,但)(是)(由)(于)(长)(假)(因)(素)(,如)(果)(要)(参)(与)(反)(弹)(,仓)(位)(还)(是)(要)(控)(制)(,等)(节)(后)(看)(海)(外)(市)(场)(特)(别)(是)(欧)(美)(股)(市)(的)(走)(势)(,再)(做)(判)(断)(。(李)(春)(平)()
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